Adrian Mannarino vs Christopher Eubanks
Mannarino has conquered Miami Hurkacz. Just like last year the only way that someone was able to take Hurkacz out here was in two tiebreaks. The big difference is that last year it was Alcaraz and this year it was Adrian Mannarino. Hurkacz played some ugly ugly tennis, but his serve was still really really strong. He absolutely fell apart in the tiebreaks as well, which is certainly disappointing, but props to Mannarino who is having a very good season and is one of my favorite players to watch on tour.
Christoper Eubanks beat Gregoire Barrere in a match that I didn’t bother to watch if I’m being truthful. Eubanks is a big server with tons of height and a one handed backhand who is a really good guy but a very borderline professional tennis player. I mean that in the gentlest way possible, not an insult, but his game has flaws that are glaring when it comes to the ATP. Still he has been having a good season, and serves just big enough that he could stay here for a while if he continues to play well. Barrere is a sort of barometer, as he is a bit strong for the challenger level, and not often dangerous at the ATP level.
This is a golden opportunity for both these players to sneak into a Masters 1000 quarterfinal and become the likely sacrificial lamb to Medvedev.
Prediction: Mannarino 7-6, 6-4
Quentin Halys vs Daniil Medvedev
Halys has had a very strong start to the season, beginning with his match against Djokovic in Australia, where they played two tight tiebreaks. Mackenzie Mcdonald has also had a good year, knocking out Nadal in Australia, and then Berrettini in the round right before this one. I wasn’t exactly sure who was the favorite heading into this one, but it felt like Halys, as he had a strong advantage on the serve and it didn’t feel as though he had a strong disadvantage in any of the rallies. He is certainly the tougher on the two opponents for Medvedev as well, as his bigger serve and groundstrokes give him a chance to get deep in sets.
Medvedev did not need the help of a walkover from Alex Molcan to get into the round of 16, but he got it anyway. The freshness doesn’t always seem to do Daniil good, as he seems to have his best stretches in situations where he has been playing for weeks on end. We learned nothing from watching the world’s most specialized hard court player beating the crap out of a clay court specialist in Roberto Carballes Baena, 6-1, 6-2. Medvedev is the second best bet in this tournament after Alcaraz as is a heavy favorite to make the quarterfinals.
Prediction: Medvedev 6-3, 7-6
Francisco Cerundolo vs Sonego/Tiafoe
Cerundolo is taking over the Miami Hurkacz mantle. This was where he broke out off clay last year and he is looking to do so again. Felix Auger Aliassime really has no excuse for losing to players like this at this stage of his career, but he has been pretty poor for a good amount of 2023. Cerundolo managed to capitalize, and put things away nicely when Auger Aliassime threatened to fight his way back in to the match late in the second.
Sonego completed to most surprising match of the round by thrashing Tiafoe. He and Tiafoe aren’t really so different, when they’re on they’re crazy good. Sonego was thwacking winners from all over the place and generally keeping the racquet out of Tiafoe’s hands. It’s tough to tell if this should be encouraging for Thiem fans because Sonego has a tendency to be a day to day guess as far as form goes The winner of this has a punchers chance to make the semis.
Prediction: Cerundolo 7-6, 4-6, 6-4
Karen Khachanov vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
The first set of Khachanov vs Jiri Lehecka was completely uneventful. Lehecka held easily to start the match and then Khachanov won 6/7 games to take a 6-2 lead. He hit 2 winners, and both were aces. Lehecka was just plain bad and handed things to him, which is a bit disappointing as on paper this was supposed to be a popcorn matchup. Lehecka was twice as good in the second set, winning his first two service games at love, and then collapsing again. At 2-2, 40-40, he missed a backhand by a mile and gave up the break. Give credit to Lehecka for battling through an incredibly long game down 2-4 that would’ve probably ended the match had he not pulled it out, but in the end they just traded holds until Khachanov served the match out 6-4.
Khachanov is not completely unlike Zverev and for my money is probably the most underrated player on tour. He hits a bit smaller on the serve than Zverev and his top level is not quite as high, but he is more consistent in his results, and has better resolve.
After a lackluster performance and interview in Indian Wells I was eager to see Tsitsipas in Miami after getting another week of recovery. You have to assume that if a player is playing at all, a week can make some difference in where they are at physically. Of course Gasquet withdrew so the tension remained, and Tsitsipas managed to find himself in the round of 32 without hitting a ball. Garin has been playing tough, and you almost want to acknowledge that it’s been a feat to qualify and make a deep run two weeks in a row, but Ruud is gifting wins, and Garin shouldn’t be ranked so low that he has to qualify in the first place.
The first set was both players jabbing back and forth a bit until Tsitsipas broke through in the eighth game of the match and served it out 6-3. Garin immediately fought back in the second, generating a 0-40 lead in Tsitsipas’ first service game of the second set, but Tsitsipas was able to navigate it and pull back to even. From here they again started marching toward a tiebreak until they hit 4-5, and Garin broke for the second set. The third set was just Tsitsipas being a bit of a better player than Garin, and we really shouldn’t have ever made it there in the first place, but it’s still nice to see Tsitsipas pull out a win. It almost feels like his head is more out of it than his body.
Prediction: Khachanov 6-4, 3-6, 7-5