Carlos Alcaraz finally ended the Medvedev winning streak and did so in convincing fashion. Medvedev had at times looked unbeatable during his win streak, but Carlos made him look extremely mortal. If Alcaraz plays his best tennis over the next week and a half we may see the first mens tennis player to win the sunshine double since Federer did it all the way back in 2017.
The Contenders
Carlos Alcaraz
Obviously you have to talk about Alcaraz first. He is a strong favorite to win the title, and looked terrifying at Indian Wells. He did recently lose to Norrie in Rio, but he was in questionable health, which doesn’t currently seem to be an issue, knock on wood. Beating Sinner was bigger for his confidence than Medvedev in my opinion. It feels far from reality, but Sinner was one point, one swing even, from ending Alcaraz’s run in the US Open quarterfinals last year. Not only would that have put Sinner up 3-1 in the head to head at the time, it would’ve been the second straight slam that he had knocked Carlos out. But that didn’t happen, and now here we are six months later and Alcaraz leads the head to head 3-2, has world number one and a grand slam title to his name and feels miles ahead. A few points here and there can shape rivalries like this, and beating Sinner handily like he did last week, even if the slow courts favored the Spaniard’s game a bit more, is a nice boost in what has the potential to become one of the premier rivalries in the sport.
Daniil Medvedev
The final leaves a bad taste in the mouth, but Medvedev should only be taking massive positives from last week. By far his best result at Indian Wells, another Masters 1000 final, a solid week of tennis, and finishing off a 19 match win streak by losing to the number one ranked player in the world. The win against Zverev was clutch, and the fact that the ankle injury turned out to be unserious is a stroke of luck. There would have been some sort of evil poetic justice to Medvedev rolling an ankle against Zverev right toward the beginning of his comeback from the same injury, but they don’t call him the octopus because he’s brittle. It’s hard to see him beating Alcaraz the way their games currently match up, but the conditions here are significantly different than Indian Wells, and maybe a faster court would make for a more interesting match between the two. Medvedev was not able to put anywhere near enough pressure on Alcaraz at Indian Wells, but it is not so easy to hit drop shots on fast hard courts. Or at least for most humans it’s not. I like Medvedev going deep, but I don’t think I see him getting out of the bottom half this week.
Hubert Hurkacz
This will either make me look like a genius or make me look like a fool. Hubert Hurkacz is a different beast in Miami, winning the title two years ago, and making a deep run last year before losing in the semis to Alcaraz by a paper thin margin. Something about these courts just make his game work, and though he is prone to bowing out early and often at times, when the conditions are right he is one of the most skilled players on the tour, and boomerangs between feeling overrated and underrated partly because of his sporadic results. The draw is tricky, with Mannarino being a possible threat on the fast courts, then Shelton being an unknown, and Norrie is also very tricky this season. If he can get through that tricky section he will be rewarded with Medvedev’s quarter. The draw is not favorable, but when Hubie is playing his top level on a favorable surface he doesn’t need it to be.
Jannik Sinner
Sinner felt like the better player for a good portion of the first set last week against Alcaraz. In the end he wasn’t able to execute when he needed to, Alcaraz snagged the set and didn’t look back. Again, a few points shape rivalries in tennis, and Sinner needs to get back on track at some point against Alcaraz before the head to head starts to inflate too much. The forehand is truly awe inspiring at times, and is as big as I have ever seen on a tennis court, on a level with Del Potro. The serve is coming along nicer, and Darren Cahill has a proven track record of turning good players into the best players in the world. It’s a bit absurd that Sinner’s career high ranking is only 9, but I think that is set to change this year. He has made a final here before, and while Indian Wells may be a bit slow to suit his game, Miami is quick, which should work in his favor. The draw could be a bit tricky, he may have to contend with Zverev, who has actually given him quite a bit of trouble in his career and really matches up well against his game, but that matchup is a long way off, and it almost feels like we should expect to get Alcaraz-Sinner round 6 in the semis.
Dark Horses
Stefanos Tsitsipas
He said himself he doesn’t expect to do well here, so I’m going to go ahead and believe him. But at the same time, the conditions are not incredibly different from Australia, and if he finds a groove, the draw is relatively favorable. An opening loss to Thompson last week was very disappointing, but may have been a blessing in disguise, as it gave him an opportunity to rest the shoulder a bit. It’s impossible to say how he is going to be playing, and if he can make it a few matches into the draw if he’ll deteriorate, but his section is loaded with clay courters, and his serve can carry him through matches as well as almost anyone on tour these days.
Alexander Zverev
Somehow Zverev seems to be back in the form that he was before the ankle injury, after missing about 8 months. The recovery was slow but the return to form was shockingly quick, and he looks as fit as he was before, which was about the only part of his game that was never a question mark. I wondered if he was going to come back with a bit of a different outlook or mental game after such a long time on the outside getting a new perspective, but the Medvedev match was a strong indication that he is going to come back and be exactly who he was before. To be fair he was an excellent tennis player before the injury, and his B game is basically unbeatable by anyone outside the top 15-20. His A game requires him to be in some sort of unpredictable state of mind, but it could click at any time, and he has been known to enter some sort of trance, and become basically unbeatable in best of three matches.
Tommy Paul
This year Tommy Paul finally broke through fully, and made a semi-final at the Australian Open. It has felt like a long time coming, he has been improving steadily every year for some time. Not only is he playing the best tennis of his life, he is incredibly adept at crafting a game-plan that puts him in a favorable position and his opponent in an unfavorable spot. He actually leads the head to head with Alcaraz 1-0, beating him in Canada last year, 6-74, 7-67, 6-3 and is the most likely player in this section to take him out. He is extremely fit, has great hands at the net, elite court coverage, and an above average serve and forehand. He’ll have to navigate through some tough matches, Davidovich Fokina has been playing well this year, but if he does, Alcaraz-Paul could be extremely entertaining.
Andrey Rublev
Rublev has had a pretty decent year, and is starting to feel like a David Ferrer, Nikolay Davydenko type of player. He beats almost everyone on tour consistently, but he has tons of trouble beating the elite players on tour. It sucks to watch as he loses his mind getting upset about the lack of results, but I think it would do him some good to change things up. I am not clear on what his plan B is, and I don’t know that it exists, which means if it’s not going according to plan you can lose to Cam Norrie 6-2, 6-4. No shade on Cam, who’s been a top 5-10 player so far this year, but Rublev needs to make some more drastic adjustments to his game if he wants to beat the very best. He should be able to safely navigate his draw until at least Sinner, but that result may be a bit of an ask for him.
Wild Cards
Felix Auger Aliassime
Felix has been all over the place over the last few years. When he is playing his best tennis he looks unstoppable, but he is capable of losing to anyone on tour. That has curbed a bit more recently, maybe because of Uncle Tony’s guidance, but he is still a flight risk. He’s got a decent draw and should have time to sink in to his game, but he has shown at times that it takes him some time to adjust to a new surface. Obviously hard court to hard court should be easy enough, but you never know. I’m starting to think that clay is actually his best surface, and faster courts rush him a bit. He played really well and hit some incredible shots in his loss against Alcaraz last week, but it felt like he was just not as good. Not always great to play so well and lose a straightforward match 6-4, 6-4, but Carlos is another level. If Auger Aliassime can reach Tiafoe it could be a wildly entertaining match with some incredible athleticism on display, and the winner should feel good about their chances to make the semis.
Frances Tiafoe
Tiafoe is basically the American Shapovalov. Unlimited talent and athleticism and a frustrating and confusing mental game. Tiafoe is super fun, and very entertaining, and usually he is having fun, and trying to entertain, which is fantastic. This does lead to some unfortunate shot selection at times, which is also partially due to the fact that he has enough touch and ability to pull off some unreasonable shots, a blessing and a curse. He said it himself last week, but when he is mentally present he is one of the best players in the world. The question is will he be mentally present. He doesn’t always mess around on the court but there have been some times when he has lost the plot entirely when he is dialed in, and it doesn’t seem to take much to get him to that stage. He really is one of the most talented players in the world, and for a second it felt like he was about to drag Medvedev into a third set shootout in the semi-finals last week, but he is the definition of a wild card.
Casper Ruud
Ruud has been awful this year, starting from the Australian Open he has looked very off. I haven’t heard any talk about his health so I am assuming it is just a funk, but it has been very bad. Lucky for him, he has not been defending almost any points in the first half of the year. Unlucky for him, starting now he is defending huge amounts of points all the way to Wimbledon. Last year he was a finalist here, so we are going to see if he has any ability to back up some of his excellent results from last year, when he was 2 sets away from becoming the world number one. Up to this point his game has been incredibly wild. He is spraying his forehand on routine balls, having no bite on his backhand, and isn’t serving at a high clip. If any of these things can start to click he was similar to Rublev last year in that he was fairly consistent in beating the beatable players he came up against. Personally I would love to see this funk end now, as I enjoy his game and having another elite player on tour, but I think it may be some time before we start to see him play like he did last year.